Key Takeaways

1. Definition of SEO Forecasting:

   • "SEO forecasting is a process that uses historical data to predict a company's future search engine optimization (SEO) results" (Ahrefs)

2. Importance of Forecasting in SEO:

   • Establishes trust with stakeholders
   • Provides reliable financial forecast models for CFOs
   • Helps CMOs estimate qualified sales opportunities

3. What SEO Forecasting Allows:

   • Predict website's search engine visibility and rankings
   • Forecast organic traffic evolution
   • Identify potential issues or blockers for quick action

4. Metrics That Can Be Forecasted:

   • Traffic
   • Revenue
   • Rankings

5. Data Required for Forecasting:

   • AOV (Average Order Value)
   • Sessions
   • New users
   • Revenue
   • Key events
   • Event count
   • Average engagement time
   • Channels
   • Keywords

6. Limitations of Forecasting:

   • Cannot be 100% accurate
   • Challenges include Google updates, changing online user behavior, and competition

7. Forecasting Model Components:

   • Historical traffic data
   • Historical revenue data
   • SISTRIX traffic forecast by domain

8. Tools and Techniques:

   • Excel FORECAST formula for "Do nothing" scenario
   • SISTRIX for traffic forecasting

Action Items

1. Gather Historical Data:

   • Collect at least 12 months of historical data for accurate 12-month forecasts

2. Create a Forecasting Model:

   • Use Excel or similar tools to create a model with columns for date, organic traffic, and revenue for both "do nothing" and "with SEO" scenarios

3. Utilize FORECAST Formula:

   • Apply the FORECAST formula in Excel for the "do nothing" scenario

4. Incorporate SISTRIX Data:

   • Use SISTRIX traffic forecasting tool to enhance predictions

5. Consider Multiple Factors:

   • Account for Google updates, user behavior changes, and competitive landscape in your forecasts

6. Present Forecasts as Guidance:

   • Remember, "SEO forecasting should be viewed as a compass, not a GPS" (Traffic Think Tank)

7. Regular Updates:

   • Continuously update your forecast model with new data and adjust predictions accordingly

8. Communicate with Stakeholders:

   • Clearly explain the limitations and assumptions of your forecasts to stakeholders

9. Monitor Actual vs. Forecasted Performance:

   • Regularly compare actual results against forecasts to improve future predictions

Remember: Forecasting in SEO is not about achieving 100% accuracy, but about providing directional guidance for strategic planning and decision-making. Always be prepared to adjust your forecasts as new data and insights become available.

For more information:

• Email: ramona.joita@gmail.com
• LinkedIn: @ramona-joita
• Presentation Deck: Speakerdeck.com/username (replace with actual username)